Field notes from the middle market.
Periodic write-ups on methodology, deal dynamics, and the working mechanics of middle-market M&A. Written for practitioners and the people who read their reports.
- August 2026Market Insights
The rate that prices your business is not the one in the headline.
The policy rate is 3.50–3.75%. The thirty-year Treasury is 5.22%. Cheap money sits at the short end of the curve; valuation is priced at the long end, where continuing value lives — and continuing value is roughly 70% of a middle-market DCF. Two charts.
- August 2026Observations
The forty-three-year-old company: what a seller's age tells you about the process it needs.
The median business in our universe sells at 19 years old. In construction and aggregates it is 43, and half of those sellers were founded before 1980. Age sets nothing about the price — and almost everything about what the process has to survive. Two charts.
- August 2026Market Insights
Fixing your margin lowers your multiple — and raises your price.
Across 293 disclosed deals, businesses at or below a 5% EBITDA margin traded at 22.5x EBITDA and 0.63x revenue. Businesses above 30% traded at 10.4x and 4.16x. The EBITDA multiple runs backwards to quality — and it is the number sellers negotiate over. Two charts.
- August 2026Market Insights
The size step: what crossing $25M of deal value is worth, in turns.
Sort 1,544 deals by size and the disclosed median climbs 7.6x, 12.5x, 13.8x, 16.8x. The steepest step is the first one — and unlike the buyer-channel ladder, this one survives every control we can put on it. Two charts.
- July 2026Observations
The best price and the best buyer are usually different companies.
The highest headline bid routinely comes from the buyer with the worst fit — and the fit differences are priceable. How to put numbers on structure, certainty, and continuity before choosing between offers. One worked comparison.
- July 2026Market Insights
The divestiture shelf: carve-outs are quietly the market's best-prepared sellers.
Folklore says corporate castoffs trade at a discount. Across 140 divestitures in our universe, disclosed carve-outs clear a median 12.2x — nearly three turns over founder sales — and their share of deal flow doubled in 2024. The premium is preparation, not provenance. Two charts.
- July 2026Market Insights
The ownership ladder: the same company sells for more the closer its buyer sits to institutional capital.
Sort 1,544 deals by who bought — strategic, corporate divestiture, PE add-on, platform LBO, secondary buyout, take-private — and disclosed median V/EBITDA climbs every rung: 9.4x to 20.3x. The buyer channel is a pricing variable, and sellers choose it. Two charts.
- July 2026Primers
The floor is not the number: the four values every seller should hold at once.
One business, four legitimate values: a defended floor, a standalone value, a buyer-specific value, and an outer bound. Sellers who carry one number into a process either leave money on the table or chase a number no buyer can justify. A worked example and two charts.
- June 2026Market Insights
The trough was 2023: what 1,544 deals say about where private multiples actually went.
Across our proprietary deal universe, median V/EBITDA fell from 11.9x in 2021 to 7.5x in 2023, then snapped back past 14x — without waiting for a rate cut. Sellers anchored to 2021 comps and buyers anchored to 2023 comps are both negotiating off the wrong year. Two charts.
- June 2026Market Insights
Not all healthcare trades alike: a multiple map of the roll-up sectors.
'Healthcare M&A is hot' hides a 6.5-turn spread. Healthtech platforms clear 14.2x EBITDA in our universe; dental DSOs clear 7.7x. The sub-sector is the comp, not the sector — and founders who benchmark against the headline walk into disappointment. Two charts across 953 healthcare deals.
- May 2026Market Insights
The cyclical-trades discount, in numbers: why a paving company sells for 5.7x and a clinic for 12x.
In our universe, highway, aggregate and paving businesses trade at a median 5.7x EBITDA — less than half the 12.4x healthcare median. The discount is structural. But a premium tail above 10x, all aggregate and quarry-anchored, shows exactly where it breaks. Two charts.
- May 2026Primers
Know your buyer before you call them: the serial-acquirer map.
A handful of names recur as buyers across our 1,544-deal universe — RadNet, Skylight Health, Quipt, American Dental, Comfort Systems. The natural buyer is usually identifiable before a process starts, and most exits are not a plain sale. A primer on mapping the consolidators who set your clearing price.
- April 2026Observations
The 77% you never see: why headline comps lie by omission.
Only 23% of the 1,544 transactions in our universe disclose an EBITDA multiple — and the deals that disclose are the deals that trade richer. The 'market multiple' a seller is shown is drawn from the visible minority. We quantify the disclosure gap and the direction of its bias.
- April 2026Market Insights
The achievability gap: what earnouts actually pay, and how to negotiate one you'll receive.
Across SRS Acquiom's 2025 Deal Terms Study, mid-market earnouts pay 21 cents on the dollar. Bio-pharma pays 19. We unpack the data, the case law, and the structural choices that determine which side of the median a seller's earnout falls on. Six charts including a term-sheet checklist.
- April 2026Case Studies
PGT Innovations: a public-deal case study in reading the difference between a headline and an economic multiple.
A case study reconstructed entirely from public disclosures. Masonite's $41 headline compressed to $39.77 in four weeks. MITER's $42 cash topping bid cleared at 12.4x trailing EBITDA. Six charts built on EODHD market data and 10-K filings.
- April 2026Primers
Reading a first-round IOI: five tells the letter gives you before the banker does.
An indication of interest is a document that wants to be read quickly and discussed slowly. Five signals to look for before anyone starts negotiating the number.
- April 2026Market Insights
The middle-market multiple at a 4% ten-year: what reset rates did to private valuation math.
The textbook said multiples should compress a full turn. In middle-market industrials and services, they mostly didn't. Three things held them up — and one of them is wearing thin.
- April 2026Case Studies
Roll-up arithmetic, honestly told: where the 4×-in, 8×-out story actually breaks.
The headline arithmetic of a roll-up is not wrong. It is incomplete. Three specific places the math quietly leaks — and what the honest version looks like.
- April 2026Primers
When to engage an acquirer assessment — and when not to.
An acquirer assessment is not diligence, and it is not a pitch. It is a written evaluation built for the seller's negotiating posture. Three situations where it earns its keep, and one where it doesn't.
- March 2026Primers
Component-parts valuation, in practice.
A cleaner floor, a more defensible ceiling, and a clearer conversation at the negotiating table. Why we default to component-parts for any business with more than one segment.
- February 2026Observations
What 'institutional' looks like for family sellers.
Family and founder-led sellers aren't underserved because banks won't take their calls. They're underserved because the deliverables are built for a different reader.