Field notes from the middle market.
Periodic write-ups on methodology, deal dynamics, and the working mechanics of middle-market M&A. Written for practitioners and the people who read their reports.
- June 2026Market Insights
The trough was 2023: what 1,544 deals say about where private multiples actually went.
Across our proprietary deal universe, median V/EBITDA fell from 11.9x in 2021 to 7.5x in 2023, then snapped back past 14x — without waiting for a rate cut. Sellers anchored to 2021 comps and buyers anchored to 2023 comps are both negotiating off the wrong year. Two charts.
- June 2026Market Insights
Not all healthcare trades alike: a multiple map of the roll-up sectors.
'Healthcare M&A is hot' hides a 6.5-turn spread. Healthtech platforms clear 14.2x EBITDA in our universe; dental DSOs clear 7.7x. The sub-sector is the comp, not the sector — and founders who benchmark against the headline walk into disappointment. Two charts across 953 healthcare deals.
- May 2026Market Insights
The cyclical-trades discount, in numbers: why a paving company sells for 5.7x and a clinic for 12x.
In our universe, highway, aggregate and paving businesses trade at a median 5.7x EBITDA — less than half the 12.4x healthcare median. The discount is structural. But a premium tail above 10x, all aggregate and quarry-anchored, shows exactly where it breaks. Two charts.
- May 2026Primers
Know your buyer before you call them: the serial-acquirer map.
A handful of names recur as buyers across our 1,544-deal universe — RadNet, Skylight Health, Quipt, American Dental, Comfort Systems. The natural buyer is usually identifiable before a process starts, and most exits are not a plain sale. A primer on mapping the consolidators who set your clearing price.
- April 2026Observations
The 77% you never see: why headline comps lie by omission.
Only 23% of the 1,544 transactions in our universe disclose an EBITDA multiple — and the deals that disclose are the deals that trade richer. The 'market multiple' a seller is shown is drawn from the visible minority. We quantify the disclosure gap and the direction of its bias.
- April 2026Market Insights
The achievability gap: what earnouts actually pay, and how to negotiate one you'll receive.
Across SRS Acquiom's 2025 Deal Terms Study, mid-market earnouts pay 21 cents on the dollar. Bio-pharma pays 19. We unpack the data, the case law, and the structural choices that determine which side of the median a seller's earnout falls on. Six charts including a term-sheet checklist.
- April 2026Case Studies
PGT Innovations: a public-deal case study in reading the difference between a headline and an economic multiple.
A case study reconstructed entirely from public disclosures. Masonite's $41 headline compressed to $39.77 in four weeks. MITER's $42 cash topping bid cleared at 12.4x trailing EBITDA. Six charts built on EODHD market data and 10-K filings.
- April 2026Primers
Reading a first-round IOI: five tells the letter gives you before the banker does.
An indication of interest is a document that wants to be read quickly and discussed slowly. Five signals to look for before anyone starts negotiating the number.
- April 2026Market Insights
The middle-market multiple at a 4% ten-year: what reset rates did to private valuation math.
The textbook said multiples should compress a full turn. In middle-market industrials and services, they mostly didn't. Three things held them up — and one of them is wearing thin.
- April 2026Case Studies
Roll-up arithmetic, honestly told: where the 4×-in, 8×-out story actually breaks.
The headline arithmetic of a roll-up is not wrong. It is incomplete. Three specific places the math quietly leaks — and what the honest version looks like.
- April 2026Primers
When to engage an acquirer assessment — and when not to.
An acquirer assessment is not diligence, and it is not a pitch. It is a written evaluation built for the seller's negotiating posture. Three situations where it earns its keep, and one where it doesn't.
- March 2026Primers
Component-parts valuation, in practice.
A cleaner floor, a more defensible ceiling, and a clearer conversation at the negotiating table. Why we default to component-parts for any business with more than one segment.
- February 2026Observations
What 'institutional' looks like for family sellers.
Family and founder-led sellers aren't underserved because banks won't take their calls. They're underserved because the deliverables are built for a different reader.